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Meaningful bullish follow-through: the reaction to this morning’s weak jobs report has accelerated substantially since the previous check. The Nasdaq Composite is now up about 1.7% and has reached a record high, while the S&P 500 is up roughly 1.0% and the Dow about 0.6%.

More importantly, traders have pushed the probability of an October Fed hike down to roughly 20% following the 29,000 payroll print and downward revisions. Treasury yields have fallen accordingly, while oil dropping below $100 is providing additional inflation/rates relief.

The move is broad but semiconductors are leading: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up roughly 3.1%, Nvidia is about +2.5% at a new intraday record, and Tesla is around +4.1% after stronger-than-expected Q3 deliveries. Ten of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors are higher, while volatility has fallen to a one-week low.

Read: clearly bullish. The important change since the last check is that the initial post-payroll bounce has developed into a broad risk-on move with a Nasdaq record, falling yields, lower oil and strong breadth rather than fading after the open.

Meaningful change since the last check: the post-jobs rally is losing some momentum as Treasury yields reverse higher. After initially falling on the weak payroll report, the 10-year yield has climbed back to about 5.26% (+2 bps on the day) and the 2-year to roughly 4.82% (+3 bps). That is notable because the morning equity rally was largely built on the expectation that weaker employment would provide sustained rate relief.

Stocks remain solidly positive, but gains have noticeably narrowed: around 11:37 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 was +0.69% and the Nasdaq Composite +1.15%, versus roughly +1.0% and +1.7% earlier. Tech and materials remain the strongest sectors, while healthcare and energy lag.

Read: still bullish, but less clean. The 29K payroll report and ~20% October-hike probability remain supportive, but the bond market is no longer confirming the equity rally. If the 10-year continues climbing toward yesterday’s 5.34% extreme, that becomes the main risk to today’s Nasdaq strength.

Major bullish catalyst: September payrolls just came in far weaker than expected. The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs vs. ~90,000 expected, unemployment rose to 4.2% vs. 4.1% expected, and July/August payrolls were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs.

Markets immediately interpreted this as reducing the chance of another near-term Fed hike. S&P 500 futures jumped ~0.8%, Nasdaq-100 futures ~1.0%, and Dow futures ~0.85%. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to roughly 5.18% and the 2-year to about 4.72%.

This is especially important after the previous checks were dominated by 24-year-high Treasury yields. The jobs miss gives bonds and rate-sensitive growth/tech a genuine macro reason to rally rather than relying only on Fed rhetoric. Oil is simultaneously down sharply, providing additional inflation relief.

Initial read: bullish for stocks, particularly Nasdaq/growth. Caveat: 29K payroll growth is weak enough to raise economic-slowdown concerns if subsequent data deteriorate. For now markets trading report as less Fed tightening → lower yields → higher equities.

Meaningful new development: Philip Jefferson has added a dovish Fed catalyst to the afternoon reversal, signaling support for pausing further rate hikes while policymakers assess the data. Markets have now cut the implied probability of an October hike to about 28%, down from roughly 69% a week ago.

That helped pull the 10-year Treasury yield from today’s 5.34% 24-year high toward ~5.23-5.26% and pushed equities back into positive territory. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both roughly +0.25%, while the Dow is around flat.

There is one important counter-catalyst: oil has surged nearly 5% after China suspended fuel exports, pushing energy stocks almost 2% higher but reviving inflation concerns.

Read: mildly bullish, but conflicted. The Fed/rates side has improved materially since the previous check, which is supportive for tech and the broader market. The new risk is oil, if the energy spike persists, it could undermine the very inflation relief that is allowing Fed-hike expectations and Treasury yields to fall.

Meaningful intraday reversal: Treasury yields have fallen sharply from their morning extremes, and stocks have reversed their earlier losses. The 10-year yield dropped from roughly 5.35% to ~5.25%, while the S&P 500 has swung from negative territory to about +0.4% this afternoon; the Nasdaq is also roughly +0.4%.

That matters because the previous check’s main bearish catalyst was the relentless bond selloff. The 10-year still briefly hit 5.34%, its highest since 2002, but buyers stepped into Treasuries afterward, relieving some of the valuation pressure on equities. AI/tech remains resilient, with Micron Technology, Nvidia and Applied Materials among the stronger names; Accenture remains sharply higher after earnings.

Read: bullish reversal, but fragile. Stocks are now rising even after today’s inflationary ISM details, while the day’s biggest macro headwind, surging yields, has reversed considerably. The key question into the close is whether the 10-year can stay near 5.25% rather than retesting the 5.34% high.

Meaningful bearish development since the previous check: the morning AI-led strength has reversed, with the Dow down roughly 0.4%-0.6%, the S&P 500 slightly negative and the Nasdaq roughly flat after all three opened higher. Rising bond yields are again overpowering the tech/earnings boost.

The newest macro problem is today’s ISM manufacturing report. Headline manufacturing was slightly softer than expected at 54.5, but the details were inflationary: Prices Paid surged to 77.9 from 71.1, while employment improved to 52.7 and new orders strengthened to 55.3. Combined with weekly jobless claims falling to just 197,000, the data paints a picture of continued economic strength and significant price pressure, the combination most likely to keep the Fed cautious about easing policy.

The 10-year Treasury remains around 5.3%+, near its highest since 2002, while Brent crude has climbed back above $100. Rate-sensitive areas such as real estate are under pressure.

Meaningful new development: the Treasury selloff has broken to another major extreme this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield reached roughly 5.34%, its highest since 2002, while the 30-year moved around 5.65%-5.68%. Brent crude has also pushed back above $100/barrel, keeping inflation concerns alive despite yesterday’s softer PCE report.

What’s unusual is that tech is currently resisting the bond shock. Nasdaq-100 futures are about +0.5%, versus roughly +0.2% for S&P futures, helped by strong AI-related corporate news. Micron Technology delivered a strong quarter/outlook supported by AI demand, while Accenture jumped roughly 16% premarket after an upbeat revenue outlook. Nvidia, AMD and other AI-related names are also higher.

Meanwhile, October Fed-hike odds have fallen to about 38% from 51% yesterday and 71% a week ago, and Goldman Sachs has moved its expected next hike from October to December following the softer PCE data.

Meaningful bearish reversal into the close: the strong post-PCE rally failed. After the Nasdaq had been up roughly 1% and the S&P 500 about 0.6% around midday, the S&P 500 reversed to close down 0.25%, the Dow fell 0.86%, and the Nasdaq retained only a 0.24% gain.

The culprit is the rates/growth conflict. Cooler PCE reduced the probability of an October Fed hike to roughly 37%, but Q2 GDP was simultaneously revised sharply higher to 2.2% from 1.5%. Long-term Treasury yields consequently remained near multi-decade highs rather than giving equities the sustained rate relief they initially expected.

There is also a significant breadth warning underneath the indexes: the equal-weighted S&P 500 has fallen roughly 4.4% in September, while mega-cap technology has kept the headline index relatively resilient.

Meaningful bullish follow-through: the post-PCE move has strengthened substantially since the previous check. By midday Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite was up about 1.1% and the S&P 500 about 0.6%, turning the softer inflation print into a genuine tech-led risk-on session rather than just an opening bounce.

The key macro shift remains Fed expectations: August PCE inflation came in below forecasts, and traders have cut the probability of an October Fed hike to roughly 35-38%, versus more than 50% before the report. The 2-year Treasury yield is falling, reinforcing the dovish interpretation.

Big Tech is driving the upside, with Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft advancing. Chips are more mixed, with AMD and Broadcom lagging.

Meaningful follow-through since the PCE check: the softer inflation print is now producing a broader tech-led rally, rather than just the modest opening bounce. The S&P 500 is up about 0.4-0.5% and the Nasdaq roughly 0.7-0.9%, while the Dow is only slightly positive.

More importantly, expectations for an October Fed hike have fallen to roughly 35%, versus about 50% before today’s inflation data and nearly 70% earlier this week. Shorter-term Treasury yields have declined as investors price a less aggressive Fed path.

AI/tech is leading the reaction, with Nvidia among the notable gainers. The caveat is that long-duration Treasury yields remain stubbornly elevated, reflecting fiscal/debt concerns and surprisingly strong underlying economic activity.

Meaningful bullish macro development: August PCE inflation came in materially softer than feared, directly weakening the case for another immediate Fed hike. Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, versus expectations around 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. Headline PCE rose 0.3%.

The repricing is substantial: the market-implied probability of an October Fed hike has fallen to roughly 37%, after being near 70% earlier this week. Treasury yields are easing, with the 10-year around 5.23%, and equities opened higher: the S&P 500 about +0.24%, Nasdaq +0.36%, and Dow +0.15%.

One caveat: consumer spending surged 0.9%, so demand remains strong and inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target. But relative to yesterday’s setup, this is exactly the kind of data the market needed to interrupt the inflation → Fed hikes → 5%+ yields → equity pressure chain.